Sunday, January 06, 2008

What the betting markets say

You hear all kinds of political talk from all angles, but when I really want to know what's going on, I just go to intrade.com and see what people are putting their money on. And right now, Obama has a 60% chance of getting the democratic nomination to only 38% for Hillary, and McCain has a 33% chance of getting the Republican nomination compared to 32% for Giuliani and 16% for Huckabee. I was amazed that McCain's numbers are so good. We'll see if they're right.....

For the general election, there's currently 38% Obama, 24% Hillary, 14% McCain, and 12% Giuliani. Go to the website for other predictions. I love betting markets.

3 Comments:

OpenID nathanpbell said...

Nice. Just last night I was looking at the Rasmussen prediction markets for the election. I'm fascinated by these things, but I haven't been able to find hard statistics on just how predictive they are. While I was looking at the graphs of the contracts at Rasmussen it seemed to me that the price followed the polls rather than the opposite, but I obviously didn't do any hard analysis.

And wouldn't prediction markets be susceptible to manipulation? For instance, if a prediction market earned a reputation for being particularly clairvoyant, wouldn't it become a target for 'cheaters,' where the payoff for inflating the price of one pick (or a couple, if it became competitive) was far more than the price of actually inflating it?

10:53 AM  
Blogger Ryan said...

Apparently they may be very susceptible to manipulation, or just outright stupidity.

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/05/arbitrage-opportunity.html

11:07 PM  
Anonymous Lange said...

RJ, I have never heard of intrade.com before. But after glancing at it for just a sec, this could quickly become my most visited site...thanks for posting it.

7:51 PM  

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